三菱日联：美联储明年下半年的政策将因领导层变动而复杂化

ChainCatcher 1 day ago 204

ChainCatcher 消息，三菱日联表示，美联储以 9 比 3 的投票结果将利率下调 25 个基点，并承认劳动力市场正在逐渐降温，鲍威尔也强调了劳动力市场面临的重大下行风险。

在通胀方面，美联储指出，若不再加征新关税，商品通胀可能在 2026 年第一季度见顶，但通胀的持续性风险依然存在。鲍威尔释放信号称，加息并非基本预期，FOMC 成员在维持利率不变与降息之间存在分歧。

最新发布的利率点阵图中值显示，美联储 2026 年仅会降息一次，这一立场明显比市场预期的大约 55 个基点（或略多于两次降息）的宽松幅度更为鹰派。鲍威尔还强调，美联储当前“处于有利位置”，可以耐心观察美国经济形势发展。

展望未来，明年下半年的政策前景可能会因美联储领导层的变动而复杂化，增加市场的不确定性。(金十)

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