Shiba Inu (SHIB ($0.00)) has recently gained momentum, rising nearly 18% between April 18 and April 25. The memecoin surged from $0.0000118 to $0.0000139 during this period, reflecting a wave of bullish sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. While this uptrend marked a strong technical breakout, on-chain data reveals a looming challenge that could significantly delay SHIB’s further price advancement.

A Resistance Wall Built on 538 Trillion SHIB

Despite establishing higher highs and higher lows, a bullish pattern in technical terms, SHIB’s progress now faces a critical test. The price currently hovers near $0.000014, a zone dense with investor activity. According to blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, approximately 538.04 trillion SHIB tokens are concentrated in wallets that purchased between $0.000014 and $0.000019. Spanning 145,600 addresses, this accumulation zone generates significant selling pressure that could potentially stall the current rally.

^{Source: Shiba Inu Active Addresses by Profitability}

These wallet addresses are predominantly in loss or break-even territory, making their SHIB holdings a likely source of sell-offs if the token price climbs into this resistance band. At the $0.000014 mark, only 15.03% of holders are in profit. This group holds around 148.05 trillion SHIB, which translates to a value of $2.07 billion. Another 2.27% of addresses are breaking even, while a staggering 82.70% are still in the red, collectively holding 814.57 trillion SHIB, worth roughly $11.39 billion.

As SHIB inches closer to the break-even range for many holders, the urge to sell and minimize losses may overpower bullish momentum, potentially triggering a wave of sell pressure just as the price attempts to climb higher.

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Waning Engagement

Although SHIB’s price performance has been strong recently, its on-chain activity tells a more cautious story. IntoTheBlock’s seven-day data shows a 17.88% drop in active addresses. This significant decrease in user engagement suggests that fewer participants are conducting transactions, indicating that short-term enthusiasm may be waning.

Although new addresses increased by 0.99%, this modest uptick signals minimal new interest from retail buyers. Without a surge in new participation, Shiba Inu’s ability to sustain upward momentum becomes increasingly fragile.

Ownership patterns further validate the shift in sentiment. The number of long-term holders,  those who have held SHIB for over a year, rose by 1.98%. In contrast, mid-term holders (between one and twelve months) declined by 3.85%, and short-term holders (under one month) dropped by a notable 12.67%. This trend reflects a slowing speculative market and a shift toward longer-term holding, which, while healthy for foundational strength, lacks the aggressive buying and trading behaviour needed to break resistance.

Related article: 669 Billion Shiba Inu (SHIB) Whale Activity Signals Potential Accumulation, Not a Sell-Off

Long-Term Vision vs. Short-Term Resistance

Although the immediate outlook remains uncertain, industry analysts maintain a positive long-term view of Shiba Inu’s potential. A Finder panel consisting of 26 crypto experts predicts that SHIB could reach $0.0001971 by the end of 2030. Similarly, projections from Changelly anticipate SHIB hitting $0.000199 by May 2031. These forecasts suggest nearly 15x growth from current levels, highlighting investor confidence in SHIB’s evolving ecosystem and community resilience.

Still, for SHIB to turn this vision into reality, it must overcome significant technical and behavioural roadblocks. The 538 trillion SHIB currently sitting in wallets above the present price is more than just a number; it’s a psychological and financial barrier. Unless SHIB garners increased trading activity, new market entrants, and stronger use cases, this resistance zone may continue to act as a ceiling.

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