AVAX ($18.12) crypto seems to be waking up after weeks of quiet consolidation. The recent breakout from its long-term trendline has caught traders’ eyes, with many seeing it as the first real sign of strength. Growing on-chain activity and renewed interest from major analysts are fueling the optimism, hinting that AVAX might be preparing for a meaningful comeback in the weeks ahead.

Breakout Retest Strengthens AVAX Technical Setup

A potential breakout structure is forming on Avalanche’s daily chart. As LongTerm highlighted, AVAX crypto has successfully broken its descending trendline that’s been intact since September, signaling the first technical shift in months. Price is currently retesting the breakout zone near $17, a level that could act as new support before continuation higher.

AVAX breaks a months-long downtrend, retesting the breakout zone near $17 as bulls prepare for potential continuation. Source: LongTerm via X

The structure shows early signs of momentum rebuilding, with volume stabilizing and candles closing above the diagonal resistance line. A sustained close above $18.20 would confirm breakout validity, opening a path towards $21 to $23 as the next resistance zone.

AVAX Narrative Gaining Widespread Attention

The broader narrative around Avalanche continues to grow stronger, with Steven9000 emphasizing that the AVAX crypto story is becoming “impossible to ignore.” This sentiment aligns perfectly with recent chart developments, a clean breakout, rising on-chain traction, and improved sentiment across L1 ecosystems.

Institutional narratives often build around strong technical setups, and Avalanche’s multi-chain expansion and real-world asset integrations are starting to attract attention again. With the breakout aligning with growing network fundamentals, the combination strengthens the bullish bias heading into year-end.

Daily Chart Hints at Bullish Divergence

Momentum is gradually improving, as shown in Abitak’s daily chart. The RSI has been printing higher lows while price action formed lower lows, a textbook bullish divergence setup. This indicates weakening downside momentum and growing accumulation near the $15 to $16 range.

Avalanche’s daily chart reveals a clear bullish divergence, with RSI climbing while price forms lower lows, hinting at early signs of recovery. Source: Abitak via X

If this divergence continues to develop alongside a confirmed breakout, AVAX price could rally towards $20–$22 in the near term. A reclaim of the 50-day EMA would further validate short-term bullish momentum, signaling the beginning of a stronger recovery phase after weeks of compression.

AVAX Price Prediction Targeting $60 and $88

According to Waleed Ahmed’s long-term structure, AVAX Avalanche price may be forming its final “low retest” zone before a major rally. The multi-year chart displays clear accumulation phases, each followed by expansion moves towards the upper supply region. The current consolidation around $17 mirrors historical bottoming behavior from 2022 and 2023.

Avalanche’s long-term chart points to a potential breakout aiming for the $60–$88 zone. Source: Waleed Ahmed via X

The projected range for the next cycle sits between $60 and $88, marking the upper supply band from prior market peaks. This projection implies more than a 3x potential upside, assuming AVAX crypto maintains its base and breaks above the current macro range resistance.

On-Chain Metrics Reinforce Bullish Avalanche Outlook

The on-chain landscape, shared by Rand, shows Avalanche recording explosive network growth, total transactions in 2025 have surged past 8 billion, a 4x increase since January. Such momentum reflects sustained adoption across subnets, real-world assets (RWAs), and DeFi protocols.

Avalanche’s on-chain activity has surged past 8 billion transactions in 2025, signaling strong network growth and rising adoption. Source: Rand via X

Rising transaction volume indicates robust ecosystem activity even during periods of price weakness. This divergence between network growth and market value often precedes strong rebounds, as fundamentals eventually realign with price. If network usage continues its trajectory, it could validate the ongoing accumulation as a precursor to the next bull phase.

Final Thoughts

AVAX crypto is flashing several converging bullish signals, a confirmed breakout, strengthening on-chain growth, and technical divergence indicating exhaustion in selling pressure. The ecosystem’s expanding fundamentals further support this shift in momentum.

If AVAX price holds above the $16 to $17 breakout zone and reclaims $20, the stage could be set for a broader mid-term rally towards $30 to $40, with macro projections stretching towards $60+. Overall, both technicals and fundamentals suggest that Avalanche’s consolidation phase may be ending, paving the way for a renewed uptrend.