Despite recent excitement around XRP ($2.02)’s potential to soar, not everyone shares the same optimism. While some analysts set ambitious targets for the digital asset, others strongly disagree, especially when comparing XRP to Bitcoin. Among them, Chartered Financial Analyst and Bitcoin maximalist Rajat Soni has emerged with one of the most conservative predictions yet. Even if Bitcoin reaches $100 million per coin, Soni believes XRP won’t climb past $20.

XRP Bulls Eye Massive Price Targets

In recent months, XRP has sparked significant interest due to its growing relevance in cross-border payments and the broader push for crypto regulatory clarity. Supporters argue that these factors, coupled with increased institutional adoption, could lead to explosive growth.

Several notable analysts have shared bold projections:

• BarriC, a respected market observer, recently forecasted that XRP could hit $100.
  
• Even more extreme, Matthew Brienen, the Chief Operating Officer of CryptoGuard, predicted an XRP rally to $1,000.
  
• Not to be outdone, market commentator John Squire went further, suggesting XRP might someday reach $10,000, which he claimed was still a conservative figure.
  

These predictions, while exciting, raise valid questions about token supply, real-world utility, and market valuation limits.

Rajat Soni Calls $10,000 XRP “Nonsense”

However, Rajat Soni is calling bluff on all these ambitious forecasts. In a detailed analysis, the Bitcoin-focused CFA strongly dismissed the idea of a $10,000 XRP valuation, branding it as “flat-out nonsense.”

Soni supported his argument with a key comparison: XRP’s total supply of 100 billion tokens vastly outweighs Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s divisibility into 2.1 quadrillion satoshis allows for a much finer distribution of value.

By Soni’s math, if 1 XRP equaled 21,000 satoshis (the closest comparison to a Bitcoin unit), and 21,000 satoshis currently cost about $22, then XRP, priced at $2.20, remains vastly less valuable. He argued that Bitcoin carries at least 1,000 times more value than XRP, reinforcing the unlikelihood of XRP surpassing even double-digit prices.

The $100 Million BTC ($90,173.00) Scenario: XRP Caps at $20?

Expanding on this, Soni projected a hypothetical scenario where Bitcoin hits $100 million. At that point, each satoshi would be worth $1, making 21,000 satoshis equivalent to $21,000. In his model, this would peg XRP’s maximum value around $20, representing only a fraction of Bitcoin’s value.

Soni added a critical macroeconomic consideration: for Bitcoin to reach $100 million, the U.S. dollar would need to lose over 95% of its purchasing power. In today’s dollar-adjusted terms, that same Bitcoin would be worth around $5 million, making XRP just $1 when measured against inflation.

This prediction paints a bleak picture for XRP holders hoping for parity with Bitcoin.

XRP’s Value Could Still Rise—Under Certain Conditions

Nonetheless, Soni’s analysis leans heavily on a Bitcoin-first framework. It assumes XRP’s value must always move in proportion to Bitcoin’s, an idea not all analysts agree with. In fact, recent data shows XRP outperforming Bitcoin in relative terms.

As of now, XRP trades at $2.16, while Bitcoin sits around $105,174, placing the XRP-to-BTC ratio at approximately 0.00002053. If Bitcoin skyrocketed to $100 million and XRP reached $22, the new ratio would drop to 0.00000020, a 99% devaluation of XRP relative to BTC.

Yet, this projection ignores broader market forces. For example, in the past several months, XRP has surged 183% against Bitcoin since November 2024, proving it can occasionally outperform the market leader.

Could XRP Reach $1,244? A Market Share Argument

Interestingly, some analysts take a completely different approach to valuation by looking at market dominance. Currently, Bitcoin holds 64.58% of the total crypto market cap, while XRP holds 3.94%.

If Bitcoin hits $100 million, its market capitalization would approach $1.987 quadrillion. If the broader crypto market retains proportional dominance, the total market cap would be $3.076 quadrillion.

In that scenario, if XRP maintains its 3.94% share, it would command a market cap of $121.194 trillion, putting the price of each XRP at approximately $1,244.

This outlook assumes consistent dominance levels and market behaviors, which is an unlikely but theoretically possible scenario if the entire crypto market matures at that scale.

Related article: Ripple Sparks XRP Community Excitement with New Teasers: What’s Really Happening?

Final Thoughts: Between Hope and Hype

While Soni’s ultra-conservative prediction contrasts sharply with bullish price targets, both ends of the spectrum reflect extreme scenarios. The idea that XRP would lose 99% of its value relative to Bitcoin, even during a major bull run, fails to account for XRP’s consistent performance during favorable regulatory or adoption cycles.

Conversely, projections of XRP hitting $1,000 or $10,000 appear disconnected from the realities of supply dynamics, utility adoption, and capital inflow requirements.

Ultimately, XRP’s future lies in balanced expectations, not hype. Its price will depend on actual usage in global payments, institutional adoption, and how well it withstands macroeconomic shifts, especially if Bitcoin does reach that mythical $100 million mark.

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