After dipping below $100,000 in early November, BTC ($103,574.00) has managed a partial recovery, signaling resilience amid broader market uncertainty. Analysts note that on-chain data combined with technical support levels could set the stage for a sustained upward move toward $150,000. Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as the cryptocurrency navigates critical thresholds that have previously marked major market bottoms.

On‑Chain Losses Signal Potential Bottom

An important on‑chain indicator for Bitcoin is showing signs of history repeating. Short‑term holdings aged 1‑3 months are currently recording realized losses of roughly ‑11%, inching closer to the critical ‑12% threshold that has preceded previous sharp rebounds in 2023 and 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a historical loss threshold, suggesting a potential rebound as short-term traders’ realized losses near -12 percent. Source: Ali Martinez via X

This metric reflects aggregate losses among short‑term sellers—a pattern historically associated with capitulation phases and subsequent recoveries. The market is gradually approaching a potential capitulation point, a stage that has historically often signaled the beginning of new growth.

While the indicator alone isn’t a guarantee of a rebound, many analysts view the alignment of this loss level with other supportive technical signals as encouraging.

Bitcoin Tests Key $100K Support Amid Crucial Technical Setup

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently testing an important landmark: the weekly 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA), which hovers near the $100,000 zone. Past cycles show this line has acted as a strong support level in corrective phases.

Recent price action shows Bitcoin bouncing back above $103,000 after a dip below $100,000 in early November—the first such break since June.

Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to continue its bull run, potentially reaching $150K in 2025/2026, supported by the weekly 50 EMA despite current bearish sentiment. Source: Sulianto Indria Putra via X

For Bitcoin to enter a bear market, the $100,000 support level would need to be decisively broken, making this level a critical threshold for market direction.

Hence, maintaining support around the $100K level is emerging as a key condition for any meaningful upside.

Outlook Toward $150K: Conditions and Cautions

Given both on-chain signals and technical support at $100K, some analysts suggest Bitcoin could be positioned for a bullish leg, potentially targeting the $150,000 range.

However, the scenario carries notable risks. A breakdown below $100,000 could shift the market bias toward further decline, with potential lower support zones near $92,000–$94,000. In addition, macroeconomic factors continue to influence the cryptocurrency market.

Recent ETF outflows, central bank policy uncertainty, and broader risk-off sentiment are weighing on investor confidence. On-chain metrics alone do not guarantee a repeat of past rebounds and should be considered within the context of overall market structure and investor behavior.

What to Watch Next

For market participants tracking Bitcoin’s next move, several key indicators will be important. Analysts are monitoring whether realized losses among short-term holders deepen toward or cross the ‑12 percent mark, a level historically associated with local market lows.

Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering from $99,500 support, eyeing $110,700 as the next key resistance for further upward momentum. Source: Kairo Vexen on TradingView

Maintaining support above the $100,000 region, particularly around the weekly 50‑week EMA, will also be critical. A break above resistance near $110,700 could open the path toward higher targets, while failure to do so may keep the market in consolidation or result in a pullback. In addition, macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy decisions,

Regulatory developments and institutional flows into ETFs will continue to influence the near-term trend. On-chain data, including supply distribution between short-term and long-term holders and net realized profit or loss, will provide further insight into market structure and potential price movements.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal juncture: supportive on‑chain metrics suggest that the worst of the short‑term pain may be behind it, and the technical structure around $100,000 appears to be functioning as a meaningful floor.

Bitcoin was trading at around 102,188.63, down 1.45% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Brave New Coin

If both hold, a move toward $150,000 is plausible in the 2025/2026 timeframe. However, the scenario is far from certain—macro risks and technical breakdowns could derail the outlook. In this environment, the $100K support level and the on‑chain loss threshold may well define the next chapter for Bitcoin.