Bitcoin’s sharp recovery above $104,000 earlier today stirred debate among traders, as on-chain data shows long-term holders (LTHs) quietly taking profits while short-term holders (STHs) are absorbing the selling pressure.

According to analysts, the tension between these two groups could decide whether BTC ($101,226.00) continues its rebound or slips back below $100,000.

LTHs Distribute as BTC Battles to Stay Above $100K

Market watcher JA Maartunn says Bitcoin is entering what he calls a “mid-bull phase,” a period where LTHs begin distributing their coins after months of accumulation.

“LTHs build bottoms; STHs build tops,” they explained in a recent thread on X. The data shows that in the last 30 days, around 363,000 BTC have left LTH wallets and shifted to STH hands, signaling a round of profit-taking rather than renewed accumulation.

Currently, LTHs hold about 73.6% of the flagship cryptocurrency’s supply, amounting to 14.62 million BTC, which is near record highs. However, BTC that has lain dormant in older wallets is also being revived. Maartunn claims that in the last 12 months, 1.17 million BTC aged between three and five years have been moved, alongside more minor but notable activity from units held for more than seven and even ten years.

They also noted that Coin Days Destroyed, a metric that tracks long-term spending, stands at 17.48 million, confirming that veteran investors are gradually distributing their holdings into strength.

The timing coincides with heightened volatility in BTC’s price. After a recent slide that pushed it just under $99,000, Bitcoin recovered to about $104,000 on Thursday, only to dip again to $103,000 at the time of this writing. While the current price still represents a 1.2% gain in the last 24 hours, it remains down 6.7% over the week and nearly 17% below its October all-time high, when it went past $126,000.

STHs in Focus as Market Awaits Next Move

The bigger question now is whether short-term holders will stay firm. According to Maartunn’s data, Bitcoin could drop even more if this group gives up, but if they keep buying and maintain conviction, they might help the price go up.

There are a number of signs that this could happen. For one, the Fear and Greed Index has moved into “Extreme Fear” territory, which has historically been a sign of local bottoms and an opportunity for buying. Meanwhile, exchange balances are hovering around a seven-year low of 2.38 million BTC, suggesting limited immediate selling pressure.

As such, market technicians are watching the $100,000–$104,000 range closely, saying that this zone matches an earlier area where liquidity was absorbed. The implication is that it could serve as a base for a stronger bounce, with analyst Michaël van de Poppe believing a move above $112,000 would confirm a return to bullish structure.

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