Bitcoin is trading around $83,000 as of November 22, 2025, marking a stunning 34% decline from its all-time high of $126,210 reached on October 6. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has shed more than 20% this month alone, mirroring a broader selloff across technology stocks and AI-related equities that has rattled global markets.

This dramatic correction isn’t an isolated event. Instead, market analysts point to a confluence of factors—from broken technical support levels to massive unwinding of Japanese carry trades—that have created what some are calling a “perfect storm” for risk assets. Here’s what’s driving the selloff and what it could mean for investors.

Technical Picture Turns Bearish as Key Support Breaks

Bitcoin’s price action has long followed predictable four-year halving cycles, and the current downturn may signal the end of the latest bull run. Following April 2024’s fourth halving event, Bitcoin rallied from around $16,000 in late 2022 to October’s peak—a roughly 7x gain that, while impressive, pales compared to the 20x returns seen in previous cycles.

The breach of critical technical levels has traders particularly concerned. For the first time this bull market, Bitcoin has closed multiple weeks below its 50-week simple moving average, currently sitting around $86,000-$88,000. Historically, this has been a reliable indicator of shifting market dynamics.

“When Bitcoin breaks below the 50-week moving average during a bull market, it typically signals the party’s over,” explains one senior technical analyst at a major Wall Street firm, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We’re seeing classic end-of-cycle behavior here.”

Market veteran Benjamin Cowen’s “lengthening cycles” theory suggests this correction could extend well into 2026. His models, which have accurately predicted previous market tops and bottoms, point to a potential floor between $40,000-$60,000 by October 2026—roughly a year from the recent peak.

Short-term indicators paint an oversold picture, with the RSI and MACD flashing buy signals. However, the MVRV Z-Score, hovering around 2, suggests valuations have returned to reasonable levels without reaching the extreme undervaluation typically seen at major bottoms. With the average 2025 buyer now underwater by 13% (cost basis around $103,227), forced selling from institutional investors could accelerate.

Global Liquidity Crunch Hits Crypto Hard

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned decisively hostile for risk assets in recent months. Two major shifts in global liquidity conditions have created powerful headwinds for Bitcoin and other speculative investments.

First, the massive unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade has sent shockwaves through global markets. With the Bank of Japan aggressively raising rates—pushing 40-year government bond yields to 3.697%—the decades-old strategy of borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding dollar assets has imploded. Market estimates suggest up to $20 trillion in carry trade positions are being forcibly unwound, triggering a cascade of selling in everything from U.S. Treasuries to tech stocks to cryptocurrencies.

“The August and November flash crashes weren’t random events,” notes a senior portfolio manager at a prominent hedge fund. “They were direct consequences of margin calls on leveraged yen positions. Bitcoin, being a 24/7 market with deep liquidity, acts as the canary in the coal mine—it shows stress first.”

Adding to the pressure, the Federal Reserve’s surprise announcement on October 29 to end quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1—six months earlier than expected—paradoxically spooked markets. While the move theoretically adds liquidity by stopping the $95 billion monthly runoff of the Fed’s balance sheet, investors interpreted the early cessation as a warning sign about underlying financial system fragility.

“It’s a classic case of ‘good news is bad news,'” explains a former Fed economist. “Markets are thinking: if the Fed is worried enough to stop QT early, what aren’t they telling us?”

ETF Exodus: Retail Investors Head for the Exits

The enthusiasm that drove Bitcoin ETFs to record inflows earlier this year has evaporated. After attracting over $50 billion in the first ten months of 2025, November has seen unprecedented outflows of $3.79 billion—with BlackRock’s IBIT alone hemorrhaging $2.47 billion.

Single-day outflows peaked at over $900 million, primarily driven by retail investors hitting the panic button. JPMorgan’s analysis reveals these aren’t crypto-native investors deleveraging but rather traditional investors who bought near the top and are now cutting losses.

“The average ETF buyer got in around $90,000,” a JPMorgan analyst explains. “With prices now below that level, we’re seeing classic capitulation behavior—selling begets more selling.”

Meanwhile, early Bitcoin adopters—those who accumulated coins between 2013 and 2017—have seized the liquidity provided by ETFs and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy’s to cash out billions in profits. This wealth transfer from early holders to new retail investors, dubbed the “Bitcoin IPO” by analyst Jordi Visser, was always going to create selling pressure, but the scale has surprised even veterans.

Internal Strife: Technical Debates Divide the Community

Adding fuel to the fire, Bitcoin’s developer community is embroiled in a heated dispute over recent protocol changes. The October release of Bitcoin Core v30 removed the 80-byte limit on OP_RETURN transactions, allowing larger arbitrary data to be embedded in the blockchain.

While supporters argue this simplifies the code and enables legitimate use cases like sidechains, critics—including prominent developer Luke Dashjr—warn it opens the door to “spam” that could bloat the blockchain with images and files, increasing node operating costs and creating potential legal liabilities.

“This isn’t just a technical debate,” explains a long-time Bitcoin developer who requested anonymity. “It’s about Bitcoin’s fundamental identity. Are we digital gold or a general-purpose data platform?”

Though the controversy hasn’t directly caused the price decline, it has amplified the “Bitcoin is losing its way” narrative among some original holders, adding psychological pressure to an already fragile market.

What’s Next? Navigating Uncertain Waters

The current correction represents a complex interplay of cyclical exhaustion, macroeconomic headwinds, institutional profit-taking, and ideological tensions within the Bitcoin ecosystem. As the most liquid risk-on asset trading around the clock, Bitcoin has become the first domino to fall in what could be a broader risk asset reckoning.

Near-term outlook (through year-end 2025): Oversold conditions suggest a relief rally is likely, potentially testing the 200-day moving average around $104,000. However, failure to reclaim the 50-week average would confirm this as merely a bear market bounce rather than a sustainable recovery.

Medium-term projection (2026): If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could enter a year-long bear market with downside targets between $40,000 and $70,000. This “lengthened cycle” scenario—where both bull and bear phases extend beyond previous norms—reflects the asset’s maturation and broader institutional participation.

Long-term fundamentals: Despite the current turmoil, Bitcoin’s core investment thesis remains intact. The halving mechanism continues reducing supply, institutional adoption proceeds (albeit more cautiously), and sovereign wealth funds increasingly view Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier. The Fear & Greed Index reading of 15 signals extreme pessimism—historically a contrarian buying signal.

For investors, the message is clear: with the correction already 30% deep, further declines will test the conviction of everyone who bought in 2025. Prudent risk management—including portfolio diversification, attention to key support levels, and avoiding excessive leverage—remains paramount.

Bitcoin’s decade-plus history demonstrates that every bear market has ultimately set the stage for the next bull run. But as anyone who’s lived through previous cycles knows, the journey between peaks is never pleasant. The key question now isn’t whether Bitcoin will recover—history suggests it will—but rather how much pain investors must endure before the next upswing begins.