Dogecoin still remains capped at the $0.15 level with its price trading at $0.158, having decreased 0.35% in 24 hours and 2.02% in the last week.

Various attempts to pierce key levels have been unsuccessful, with prices going as low as $0.149 before recovering marginally. Market observers indicate that these short-term setbacks could be a prelude to monumental price swings in either direction.

Possible 40% Fall Before The Huge Rally

A fresh analysis published on TradingView by SwallowAcademy indicates Dogecoin might see a dramatic drop before any significant price increase. The analyst looked into DOGE ($0.18)’s price action compared to Tether (USDT ($1.00)) on daily charts, where the meme coin has been known to be extremely volatile.

Their plots indicate a sudden spike in the beginning of 2024 followed by a decline from highs around $0.23, then another downslide to $0.09 mid-year before recovering above $0.45.

SwallowAcademy thinks that the same trend may develop in 2025. However, their prediction is that Dogecoin may decline another 40% to around $0.09, creating a zone of support before, possibly, skyrocketing 400% to $0.45. The price stands at over $0.15 currently, and the analyst is holding out for the anticipated drop to $0.09.

The ‘False Break’ Pattern – What It Means

A standalone analysis by Trader Tardigrade indicates Dogecoin’s initial “false break” since December 2024. The cryptocurrency has, in general, traced a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, which are common bearish market indicators. After dropping to $0.13 on April 7, though, the price did bounce briefly before declining once more.

Trader Tardigrade reads this as a “false breakdown” – potentially indicating the end of the downtrend. With prices remaining above the support line for a few days, this pattern may indicate an imminent bullish reversal. Based on their analysis, Dogecoin may aim for $0.42 if the reversal occurs.

#Dogecoin Makes a False Break for the First Time Since Dec 2024

It’s staying above the support line for days, confirming the characteristics of a false break. A new $DOGE bull run could start from this false break pic.twitter.com/e8ui5FuFxV

— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) April 15, 2025

Statistics from IntoTheBlock show trends in Dogecoin holder behaviors that are differing. Long-term holders (more than one-year holders) lost 2.65% last month. The mid-term, or “Cruisers,” as they’ve been labeled by the report, who hold their coins for between one and twelve months, lost even more by 12%.

On the other hand, short-term holders who held for under a month increased by 107%. This realignment is an indicator of increasing speculative demand as opposed to long-term confidence, possibly resulting in enhanced short-term price volatility.

In spite of the conflicting signals from general users, big holders seem more and more interested in Dogecoin. The statistics indicate a consistent increase in big holder inflows – up 5.30% in the last week and a whopping 324% in the last month.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView