Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its latest Bybit TradFi Report. The report examines how investors are evaluating labor market conditions during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, focusing on the role of private data in filling the void left by suspended official statistics.

Private Data Sources Fill the Gap

With U.S. labor statistics on hold due to the government shutdown, market participants have turned to alternative data sources. Bloomberg’s reconstructed unemployment figures indicate a modest decline in initial jobless claims, suggesting tentative stabilization. According to Bloomberg’s analysis, initial jobless claims fell to approximately 218,000 for the week ending October 25, down from 231,000 the previous week. However, gaps in state-level reporting introduce some uncertainty.

Continuing claims have edged higher to 1.95 million, highlighting slower workforce re-entry and the continued strain on federal employees. Unemployment claims under the federal program have reached their highest level since the previous shutdown, disproportionately affecting federal workers.

Employment and Wage Trends

Private-sector employment data, such as ADP’s newly introduced weekly payroll data, and online job postings point to renewed hiring momentum. ADP’s data shows steady job creation, averaging 14,250 new positions per week—a recovery from September’s job losses. Wage trends and consumer sentiment further contribute to insights into labor market resilience.

Despite signs of stabilization, persistent benefit claims and limited hiring momentum underscore the economy’s fragility. The full analysis is available in the Bybit TradFi Report.

Why This Matters: Impact, Industry Trends & Expert Insights

The Bybit TradFi Report highlights the reliance on private data to gauge labor market conditions amid the U.S. government shutdown, as official statistics remain unavailable. This situation underscores the critical role of alternative data sources in maintaining market stability and informing investor decisions.

Recent industry reports indicate a modest job growth in the private sector, with significant structural shifts impacting labor force participation. This aligns with the report’s findings on the importance of private data in understanding labor market dynamics during the shutdown.

A Business Insider report highlights that alternative data sources confirm a sharp cooling in the job market, with muted hiring and increased layoffs. This supports the Bybit TradFi Report’s emphasis on the challenges faced by the labor market and the economy’s fragility during the government shutdown.

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