Crypto.com rolls dice on prediction market launch despite circling state authorities

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DL News 2 hours ago 135

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Travis McGhee is betting the house that his company’s app will become ubiquitous at your next Oscar’s party.

At least, that’s the pitch.

After Crypto.com announced a new partnership with the entertainment news outlet Hollywood.com in November, the Singapore-headquartered crypto exchange’s global head of capital markets expects its prediction market product and big-ticket film hype to be a match made in heaven.

“Oscar parties are massive, right?” McGhee told me. “I’ve been to a few parties where you’re constantly talking about who’s going to win Best Actor, who’s going to win Best Actress. You’re constantly trying to forecast.”

Crypto.com’s prediction markets will even be embedded directly into Hollywood.com’s articles so readers can bet on which new film George Clooney stars in while reading the latest interview with the 64-year-old actor.

Entertainment is just one niche, too.

Crypto.com is going all in on prediction markets.

Sports, culture, politics

Via a slew of recent tie-ups, including with US President Donald Trump’s social media platform, Crypto.com is spinning up event-based wagering on questions around sports, pop culture, politics, and traditional financial markets.

“I look at this expansion into another asset class that complements, in a lot of ways, crypto,” he said, highlighting the platform’s more than 152 million users who trade digital assets. “Providing them that access to crypto, while simultaneously providing them access to new opportunities, is important to our business.”

For years, prediction markets have let users win money for accurately forecasting the outcomes of any number of events, from the US presidential election to whether a missing submarine would be found.

Volumes and open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two market leaders, dipped briefly following the election.

Now, that money has come rushing back in as sports seasons pick up this autumn.

Weekly notional volume for prediction markets in November hit roughly $2 billion, according to Dune Analytics data.

Last week, that figure reached $3 billion and is buttressed primarily by sporting events.

Still, growth is far from a given.

Legal battles

Both Crypto.com and Kalshi are mired in legal disputes with state gaming commissions over their sports-event contracts.

Though both companies are registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, local authorities allege that these products constitute unlicensed sports betting and thus fall within their jurisdiction.

Gambling authorities in Nevada, in particular, pose a considerable challenge for them.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board issued Crypto.com a cease-and-desist letter in May, ordering the company to stop its offerings in the state. The crypto firm sued the NGCB in June, and a federal judge denied its request for a preliminary injunction in October.

Crypto.com stopped offering sports event contracts in Nevada on November 3 while it appeals.

Ohio and Maryland gaming authorities have issued similar orders as well.

Shouldn’t the expensive and cumbersome litigation on a state-by-state basis pose a significant obstacle to Crypto.com’s growth ambitions?

“I don’t,” McGhee said. “I firmly believe that event contracts are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC. At the end of the day, the federal courts will rule in our favour.”

He hopes to get the integrations with Hollywood.com, Truth Social, and MyPrize prediction markets up and running by January 2026.

Liam Kelly is DL News’ Berlin-based DeFi correspondent. Have a tip? Get in touch at liam@dlnews.com.



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