CryptoQuant CEO：四年周期难以复现，ETF 和 MSTR 买入水平或决定市场动能

ChainCatcher 10 hours ago 218

ChainCatcher 消息，据 CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 在 X 平台表示：“我放弃了预测比特币价格，但没有放弃分析数据”，并发布比特币数据分析：卖压盖过需求、杠杆仍高；ETF/MSTR 若恢复净买入，动能或重启。

具体为：全网平均成本 $55,900，平均浮盈 ~+93%；本周 Realized Cap +$8B，链上流入维持强劲，但价格受卖压抑制。增量买盘集中在 ETF/金库；Binance 交易者与矿工成本约 $56K（浮盈近翻倍），兑现意愿提升。市值与已实现市值“倍数差”温和扩大，尚未到极端亢奋。现货至期货的 BTC ($110,681.00) 流入显著下降，高信念多头减少；清算后杠杆仍高于两年前，波动风险仍存。算力创新高（约 596 万台 ASIC），上市矿企持续扩张，长期基本面偏多。ETF 与 Strategy 近期放缓净买入；若恢复节奏，市场动能大概率回归。Ki 指出，增量流动性更为多元，使比特币难再完全按传统四年周期演绎。

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