As 2025 draws to a close, a recent report from leading exchange Bybit and analytics firm Block Scholes casts a cautious shadow over the crypto derivatives market. Despite the Federal Reserve’s increasingly clear monetary policy outlook, the highly anticipated catalyst for renewed bullish sentiment has largely failed to materialize. The comprehensive analysis, released December 15th, 2025, indicates a pervasive lack of enthusiasm among derivatives traders, suggesting that macro-economic headwinds continue to exert significant pressure on risk-on digital assets, despite expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Fed in the coming year.

The Report’s Core Findings: A Stagnant Sentiment

The Bybit and Block Scholes report, a crucial barometer for institutional and sophisticated retail trading activity, paints a picture of stagnation rather than the anticipated revival. Key findings highlight:

• Flat Open Interest: Across major perpetual futures and options markets, aggregate open interest has remained largely range-bound, indicating a lack of significant new capital inflow or aggressive directional bets.
• Decreased Futures Volumes: Trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have seen a modest decline compared to earlier quarters in 2025, suggesting a reduction in speculative activity and short-term positioning.
• Options Skew Neutrality: While not overtly bearish, the options market exhibits a notable neutrality in skew, with neither calls nor puts seeing a significant premium bid, signaling uncertainty rather than conviction in either upward or downward price movements.
• Funding Rates Plateau: Average funding rates for perpetual swaps are hovering near zero or slightly negative for longer durations, reflecting a balanced, if not slightly short-biased, market without strong bullish conviction.

This data collectively points to a market that, while not in outright panic, is certainly not capitalizing on the Fed’s communicated path, which many analysts previously expected to provide a tailwind for digital assets.

Federal Reserve’s Persistent Shadow: A Disconnect?

The Federal Reserve’s influence on global financial markets, including crypto, remains undeniable. Throughout 2025, market participants have closely scrutinized every statement and rate decision, attempting to front-run shifts in monetary policy. Recent communications from the Fed have suggested a potential plateau in rate hikes, with some dovish signals hinting at possible rate cuts later in 2026 if inflation continues to recede. Traditionally, such signals would spur investment into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, as the cost of capital decreases and investors seek higher returns outside traditional fixed-income instruments.

However, the Bybit-Block Scholes report suggests a disconnect. The anticipated positive reaction has failed to materialise in the derivatives space. This could be attributed to several factors:

• Lagged Impact: Monetary policy changes often have a lagged effect, and traders may be waiting for concrete actions rather than just rhetoric.
• Persistent Inflation Concerns: Despite the Fed’s narrative, underlying inflation concerns or other macro uncertainties (e.g., geopolitical tensions, recession fears in key economies) might still be weighing heavily.
• Sector-Specific Headwinds: The crypto market itself might be grappling with internal challenges, such as ongoing regulatory uncertainty, major security incidents earlier in the year, or a lack of groundbreaking innovation to reignite broad interest.

Derivatives Market Dynamics: A Leading Indicator of Caution

The crypto derivatives market, encompassing futures, options, and perpetual swaps, often serves as a forward-looking gauge of sentiment due to its leveraged nature and the ability to express both long and short positions efficiently. The current apathy observed in this sector is particularly telling. Institutional traders and sophisticated algorithms often leverage these instruments to hedge existing spot positions, speculate on price movements, or arbitrage inefficiencies. When these players exhibit a lack of directional conviction, it can signal broader market hesitancy.

The report underscores that while spot market volumes might fluctuate, the derivatives market offers a clearer insight into the intensity of market conviction. The current data implies that market participants are either awaiting a stronger, undeniable macro shift, or they perceive specific risks within the crypto ecosystem that even a more favorable Fed outlook cannot fully offset.

Implications for Q1 2026: A Measured Outlook

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, the report’s findings suggest a period of continued caution and potentially range-bound trading for major cryptocurrencies. Without a strong catalyst from either macro-economic shifts or significant internal crypto-specific developments, a rapid, sustained uptrend in prices seems less probable in the immediate future. Investors may continue to prioritize capital preservation and seek clarity on both regulatory fronts and global economic stability before committing heavily to leveraged positions. The market might remain sensitive to any adverse news, with quick reversals possible given the prevailing lack of conviction.

Conclusion

The Bybit and Block Scholes report serves as a timely reminder that even seemingly positive macro signals may not be enough to override deep-seated market caution within the crypto derivatives space. As we approach 2026, the absence of a significant sentiment shift, despite the Federal Reserve’s outlook, points to a market seeking more than just rhetorical reassurance. Traders and investors are likely to maintain a watchful stance, awaiting more tangible evidence of sustained economic recovery and clearer regulatory frameworks before fully re-engaging with the higher-risk, higher-reward dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.

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