Hedera (HBAR ($0.20)) has gained more than 14% this week, recovering from its recent slump. Yet, despite this short-term bounce, the HBAR price remains down nearly 9% for the month, a clear downtrend.

The mixed signals across indicators are now raising a bigger question: Are whales hinting at a hidden crash that smart money and retail traders are ignoring?

Smart Money and Retail Stay Bullish Despite Warning Signs

The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the moves of experienced HBAR traders, has been climbing since October 26, making higher highs and moving above its signal line. This typically indicates that informed traders expect a rebound or believe the worst is behind them. Even after a brief pullback, the SMI remains near 1.08, maintaining a cautiously bullish short-term outlook.

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Smart Money Still Leans Bullish: TradingView

If the index stays above that mark, the bias remains positive. A drop below 1.08, however, could flip the sentiment quickly.

Retail traders also seem optimistic. Maybe a bit more than Smart Money. The Money Flow Index (MFI) — a measure of buying and selling pressure using both price and volume — has surged from near 35 to 69.4 over two weeks. This sharp rise signals fresh inflows and rising retail interest, a typical sign that smaller traders are buying dips in anticipation of a rebound.

HBAR Retail Is Continuing To Move Money: TradingView

In short, smart money and retail still see potential upside in the HBAR price. But that confidence might not have the legs, because whales are quietly exiting.

Whales Are Exiting While Smart Money Bets on a Rebound

While smaller HBAR traders and institutional signals appear bullish, large wallet holders tell a different story. Data shows that 100 million+ HBAR accounts have dropped from 41.75% of the total supply to 40.65% since October 21 — meaning roughly 1.1% of holdings among these whales have exited in less than two weeks.

Hedera Whales Dumping: Hedera Watch

That’s a minimum of 110 million HBAR moving out of large wallets. At the current price, this represents at least $20.9 million in value that’s left whales’ hands. This is a notable shift during a period when smaller traders are turning bullish.

It’s a classic split: smart money and retail think the bottom is in, but whales seem to be preparing for another leg down. If whales are indeed front-running a correction, the charts should start showing early signs — and they already do.

HBAR Price Chart Shows “Hidden” Bearish Divergence or The Crash Catalyst

On the daily chart, the HBAR price has been trading inside a tight range between $0.219 and $0.154 since October 11, showing indecision between buyers and sellers. Possibly the traders and whales.

Between October 6 and October 29, the price made a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which tracks price momentum — made a higher high. This pattern is hidden bearish divergence. A setup that often signals the continuation of an existing downtrend. In HBAR’s case, that could lead to a correction if key levels break.

Currently, the HBAR price holds above $0.189, but losing that support could trigger a slide toward $0.168. If selling continues, the next major support lies near $0.154, and below that, the token could fall to $0.119.

HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

A move below $0.168 would confirm a bearish continuation. Holding above it might allow short-term consolidation. For now, the odds lean toward a deeper HBAR price pullback. That could happen unless new buying volume comes in to offset the ongoing whale exits.

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