Metaplanet Inc., the once-obscure Tokyo hotel operator turned Bitcoin (BTC ($89,915.00)) accumulator, is entering a decisive four-week stretch that could redefine how listed companies handle crypto on their balance sheets.

According to analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera, the firm now sits on a paper loss of around $651 million from its 30,823 BTC bet, even as it posts record profits and prepares a complex preferred-share deal that will test whether this model can actually survive a drawn-out Bitcoin downturn.

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Treasury Hits a Wall Just as BTC Stalls

Perera presented Metaplanet’s complex financial picture in a November 25 blog post. He noted that the company acquired its Bitcoin position at an average price of $108,036 per BTC, but with the cryptocurrency trading around $87,500 as of November 26, the unrealized loss has reached $651 million. This has contributed to an 81% decline in the company’s stock price since June.

However, its financial statements tell a very different story: revenue is up 1,700% year-on-year to ¥4.3 billion and net income hit ¥13.5 billion for the fiscal year through September.

According to Perera, Metaplanet’s strategy relies on what he calls reflexivity. When Bitcoin’s price increases and the company’s stock trades at a premium, it can issue equity to buy more BTC, creating a virtuous cycle.

But this mechanism broke when the stock began trading below the value of the firm’s Bitcoin holdings, pushing its multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) down to 0.88 in late November and making equity issuance destructive to existing shareholders.

To keep raising capital without crushing the stock, the firm launched a perpetual preferred equity instrument called “MERCURY” on November 20, with a 4.9% dividend and a ¥1,000 conversion price. A shareholder vote on December 22 will decide whether roughly ¥21.25 billion of that capital goes live.

A Test Case for Corporate BTC Risk in a Shaky Market

Metaplanet’s gamble is playing out against a tough backdrop in both Japan and the wider crypto market.

Bitcoin only recently rebounded from a dip below $81,000 and is struggling to break out above the high-$80,000s, with on-chain and derivatives data still pointing to heavy unrealized losses and ongoing whale selling.

Domestically, regulators are watching closely. The Tokyo Stock Exchange operator has signaled possible tighter rules for firms that pivot into digital-asset treasury strategies, after several smaller players were warned off similar moves this autumn.

Metaplanet’s management insists it followed proper governance and shareholder approval processes, casting itself as the “responsible” version of the model. Additionally, the Bank of Japan has shifted away from ultra-cheap money, lifting interest rates to 0.5%, the highest in years, and allowing government bond yields to climb.

That has complicated the original thesis that Japanese savers, squeezed by negative real returns and a weak yen, would chase BTC exposure through Metaplanet stock. Whether that narrative holds will depend on three converging forces over the next month: the MERCURY vote, Bitcoin’s year-end price action, and how far Japanese regulators go.

The post Metaplanet Emerges as a Key Test Case for Corporate Bitcoin Adoption appeared first on CryptoPotato.