January 27 (Friday) morning market trends (compared to the previous day)
traditional finance
NY Dow: $33,978 +0.08%
Nasdaq: $11,621 +0.9%
Nikkei Stock Average: ¥27,382 +0.07%
USD/JPY: 129.85 -0.28%
USD Index: 101.9 +0.09%
10-year US Treasury yield: 3.51 +0.6%
Gold Futures: $1,928 -0.09%
crypto assets
Bitcoin: $23,170 +0.5%
Ethereum: $1,603 +0.1%
Today’s New York Dow and Nasdaq continue to rise for six business days. Did the latest data, such as the US price statistics, support the slowdown in inflation and the easing of US Fed rate hikes?
Last night’s US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell short of expectations at -0.2% m/m. Core PCE year-on-year growth rate was +4.4%, slowing from +4.7% in November. Both indexes have slowed down compared to the same month of the previous year, marking the lowest growth in more than a year. Other indicators of inflation, such as personal income and wages, have also slowed markedly.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is an index that shows the price trend of personal consumption announced by the US Department of Commerce at the end of each month. US personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, is drawing attention as a leading indicator of GDP. The PCE core deflator, which divides the nominal PCE by the real PCE, is known as the price index that the US FRB places the most importance on.
In addition to December’s weak CPI, the latest data have increased the likelihood that the Fed will decide to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points each in February and March. In addition, there is speculation that the interest rate hike will end soon and that interest rate cuts will begin in September. Meanwhile, Fed officials say they do not expect a rate cut this year.
deflator
December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE): Current +5.0% Forecast +5.3% November +5.5% (YoY)
December Personal Consumption Expenditure: This time -0.2% Forecast -0.1% November -0.1% (vs. previous month)
December personal consumption core (other than food and energy): this time +4.4% forecast +4.4% November +4.7% (YoY)
Dec Personal Consumption Expenditure Core: Current +0.3% Forecast +0.3% Nov +0.2% (MoM)
University of Michigan
January University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (confirmed): 64.9 this time, preliminary 64.6, December 59.7
January University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (confirmed figures): 3.9% this time, preliminary figure 4.5%, December 4.4%
January University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectations (confirmed): 2.9% this time, 3.0% in December, 2.9% in December
Relation : Strong U.S. GDP is only a sign of economic slowdown
US stocks
Earnings results for Microsoft and Tesla were announced this week, but next week IT giants such as Apple (February 2), Amazon (same day), and Alphabet C (same day) will also announce their financial results.
Relation : NY Stock Exchange system failure, Microsoft settlement, etc. | 25th Financial
Buzzfeed +85%, Big Bear ai (AI-related) +7%, Tesla +11%, Microsoft +0.065%, Alphabet C +1.9%, Amazon +3%, Apple +1.3%, Meta +3%, Coinbase +15.7%. Algo Blockchain -7.5%.
The online media buzzfeed soared on the 27th. On the 26th (U.S. time), the stock price surged 120% at one point as information surfaced that AI technology developed by U.S. company OpenAI was used to generate and personalize content such as online quizzes. BuzzFeed later revealed that it would use a public API instead of ChatGPT, but it seems that the CEO’s announcement of plans for AI integration was also taken into account.
Relation : BuzzFeed stock soars 119% after OpenAI’s content enhancement measures
Relation : Recommended for cryptocurrency investors, advantageous shareholder benefits “10 selections”
Important economic indicators and events from next week onwards
February 2 (Thursday 4:00): FOMC policy rate
February 3 (Thursday 22:30-24:00): U.S. Unemployment Rate/Nonfarm Employment
Relation : What is “leveraged trading” practiced by virtual currency investors | Explanation for beginners
USD/JPY: 129.85 -0.28%
US dollar = 129.85 yen, down 0.28% from the previous day. The US consumer spending and other indicators indicated a slowdown in inflation, and expectations of the Fed’s interest rate hikes and easing are increasing, so the dollar fell back. The US long-term bond market continues to drop slightly due to selling ahead on expectations of a rise in the Bank of Japan’s long-term interest rates. On the other hand, it was bought back in response to the data of slowing US inflation and narrowed the decline.
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Relation : The background of the “strong dollar” that affects the virtual currency market also explains the correlation and factors of the weak yen
Virtual currency market
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), etc. are high as the NY Dow and NASDAQ continue to rise. Web3 game brand “MAGIC” increased by 30% from the previous day. The price has significantly renewed the high price since the beginning of the year, and has increased about 2.2 times since January 1st.
MAGIC is the native token of the blockchain game collection “TreasureDAO”. TreasureDAO is a project aiming to be a “decentralized Nintendo”, running on the L2 blockchain Arbitrum and hosting games such as The Beacon and Kuroro. On the 26th, they released a new AMM exchange called MagicSwap v2.
Announcing the new MagicSwap by @Treasure_DAO .
MagicSwap v2 will be the first AMM in crypto with universal token compatibility, supporting pools for both ERC-20s + NFTs through a single router and enabling trading of all items within game economies.https://t.co/JYLScglA1o
License.
