Bitcoin reversal rise due to US bank rescue, uncertainty about high inflation ｜ bitbank analyst contribution
Virtual currency market this week (3/11 (Sat) – 3/17 (Fri))
Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at the major domestic exchange bitbank, illustrates this week’s bitcoin chart and analyzes the future outlook.
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Bitcoin on-chain data
Contributed by bitbank
Bitcoin on-chain data
Number of BTC transactions
Number of BTC transactions (monthly)
Number of active addresses
Number of active addresses (monthly)
BTC mining pool remittance destination
bitbank analyst analysis (contribution: Yuya Hasegawa)
Weekly report from 3/11 (Sat) to 3/17 (Fri):
The Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate against the yen this week turned around from the end of last week and followed an upward trend, reaching a high for the first time in nine months at one point.
Last week, following the voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a risk-off mood emerged due to a sense of crisis over the vulnerability of the US banking system, pushing the BTC price to around 2.7 million yen. However, over the weekend, the U.S. Treasury Department (MoF) and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) issued a joint statement to protect all deposits deposited with the SVB and to establish an emergency lending facility, the Bank Term Lending Facility. Program”, the market began to rebound and started trading around 3 million yen this week.
However, in the financial market, distrust of the management of mid-sized US banks smolders, and as funds flow into US Treasury bonds, which are considered safe assets, a decline in yields becomes a tailwind for BTC, and the market returns to the 3.2 million yen level from the beginning of the week. rice field. Furthermore, the US consumer price index (CPI) in February slowed its pace of increase compared to the previous year, and the market temporarily topped the 3.5 million yen level for the first time in nine months.
On the other hand, the CPI core index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated slightly month-on-month, and US Treasury yields immediately rose. On this day, concerns about the financial crisis began to recede, and the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) continued to raise interest rates, and the market narrowed its rise.
Furthermore, in the middle of the week, it was reported that Saudi National Bank, the largest shareholder of Crid Suisse, had decided not to make an additional investment in the bank, raising concerns about the global financial crisis. pushed to the circle.
However, as the risk of a financial crisis resurfaced, expectations of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates receded. As a result, when BTC stopped falling at 3.2 million yen, the Swiss National Bank announced that it would support Credit Suisse, and the bank announced a funding plan of up to 7.1 trillion yen. Risk appetite has picked up on news that the bank is moving to back mid-sized bank First Republic Bank.
In the early morning of the 17th, the BTC market recovered to the 3.4 million yen level on expectations that the FRB’s balance sheet had expanded to support US banks and that the quantitative tightening (QT) was effectively over.
[Fig. 1: BTC vs Yen chart (1 hour)]Source: Created from bitbank.cc
BTC vs. US dollar last week broke below the uptrend line and tested below the 200-day moving average. The systemic risk has been curtailed, and the stock is currently trading above the August high of last year, which had been a strong resistance to the market until now (Figure 2).
BTC failed to break out at the same closing level on Tuesday, but if it succeeds, it will break out of the lows for about 10 months, and from the Dow Theory point of view, the market can be judged to be in an uptrend.
[Fig. 2: BTC vs. USD chart (daily)]Source: Created from Glassnode
In addition to the financial sector, indexes of volatile sectors such as energy and manufacturing have pushed hard this week, but the reversal between those concerns has now lifted risk appetite. In addition, the shrinking of the FRB’s balance sheet, which started last year, will be reversed, and the improvement in liquidity will also serve as a tailwind for the near-term BTC market.
However, inflation remains high, as evidenced by this week’s core CPI. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) has prioritized controlling inflation this week, even after the Credit Suisse incident, and is pushing ahead with an interest rate hike of 50 basis points (bp). FOMC) is more uncertain than ever.
As for the extent of the interest rate hike, it can be said that we have to be cautious and the likelihood of a 50bp hike is extremely low. Entering the market (currently, many expect an interest rate cut from June), it will be a heavy burden on the BTC market.
Contributor: Yuya Hasegawa Yuya Hasegawa
After graduating from a graduate school in the UK, he worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and the virtual currency market at a venture company consisting of people from financial institutions. Market analyst at Bitbank Co., Ltd. since 2019. He has a track record of providing comments to major domestic financial media and contributing to overseas media.
connection: bitbank_markets official website
Last report: Bitcoin continues to fall sharply due to the financial crisis of US financial institutions, will the predicament continue?
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