Ripple’s XRP ($2.47) is once again in focus as analysts draw comparisons between the current market structure and the one seen in 2017. Several price models suggest that the asset could still climb above $5 in the current cycle. 

Despite a recent drop from local highs, some long-term setups remain unchanged.

Cycle-Based Models Project More Upside

Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO shared a chart using what he called the “10% theory.” The model is based on the Gaussian Channel over a two-week time frame. 

In 2017, XRP gained about 3,700%. So far this cycle, the move has reached around 370%. If a final push brings a similar percentage gain, his target falls between $5.50 and $6.00.

EGRAG also pushed back on the idea that XRP is showing weaker returns. He pointed to the 2021 cycle, where XRP moved 1,700% from bottom to top. He said that repeating that gain would again bring XRP above the $5 level.

Chart Pattern Tracks 2017 Structure

Chart analyst ChartNerdTA posted a long-term pattern that shows XRP moving inside a large ascending triangle. The structure looks similar to the one that formed before the 2017 breakout. That move started after the price broke above the triangle resistance.

$XRP: 2017 rinse repeat structure. PA is gearing up for a HUGE blow-off-top. Targets on this fractal sit with a similar FIB extension range to 2017, with the 1.618 at $10 and the 2 FIB extension at $27. Further confluence with my other fractal FIB extensions to double digits pic.twitter.com/RNyweESknZ

— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) October 29, 2025

In this current setup, ChartNerdTA uses Fibonacci extensions to show possible targets. The 1.618 extension lands at $10, while the 2.0 level sits at $27.92. These levels match the breakout structure from the last cycle. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.57, still below the resistance zone.

Trading Data and On-Chain Signals

Market watcher EtherNasyonaL noted that XRP continues to hold structure, even after failing to stay above $2.67. The price slipped, while daily volume reached $5.5 billion. Over the last week, XRP is up 7%, despite a 3% decline in the past 24 hours.

Futures open interest stands near $4.35 billion. However, on-chain data shows wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP sold more than 140 million tokens during the price move. This activity suggests profit-taking while the market remains active.

CryptoPotato also reported that the TD Sequential indicator flashed a sell signal on the daily chart. This signal has added caution to short-term expectations, even as long-term projections remain in play.

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