OFFICIAL TRUMP ($7.44) is showing signs of a short-term recovery after weeks of steady decline, but the movement may not be as promising as it appears. The meme coin is trading cautiously, as both Bitcoin’s rally and the absence of trader enthusiasm are limiting its upside potential. 

Current market patterns suggest that the late-year recovery may, in fact, be setting the stage for a deeper correction in Q4.

OFFICIAL TRUMP Loses Bitcoin And Broader Market’s Impact

At the moment, OFFICIAL TRUMP’s correlation with Bitcoin is notably weak, sitting at -0.44. In simple terms, this means TRUMP’s price tends to move in the opposite direction of Bitcoin’s. This inverse relationship could pose a challenge, especially since Bitcoin historically performs strongly in Q4.

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TRUMP Correlation With Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

If Bitcoin maintains its bullish trajectory through the final months of 2025, TRUMP could face downward pressure. While this decoupling might have protected it during Bitcoin’s previous dips, the same independence could now leave the meme coin vulnerable as the broader market strengthens without it.

Bitcoin Quarterly Performance. Source: CryptoRank

The Futures Of TRUMP

The funding rate paints a concerning picture for TRUMP’s macro outlook. Short positions have dominated the market longer than long contracts, reflecting growing skepticism among traders. This imbalance signals fading investor confidence and the lack of a clear directional bias, both of which are vital for recovery.

Without renewed commitment from long-term holders, any attempt at a sustainable rebound remains fragile. The absence of positive funding momentum highlights traders’ caution and the risk that further liquidations could amplify downside volatility in the coming weeks.

TRUMP Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

TRUMP Holders Could Reverse The Outcome

Despite the macro weakness, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator offers a glimmer of hope. Currently hovering near the -10.0 level, the metric has historically preceded recovery rallies for TRUMP. This level has often marked accumulation zones where buyers step in temporarily before broader corrections resume.

TRUMP CMF. Source: TradingView

With an ascending wedge forming on the charts, TRUMP could see a short-term bounce before facing renewed selling pressure. The pattern suggests a potential brief recovery, but overall bearish structure remains dominant as 2025 draws to a close.

TRUMP Price May See A Breakdown

OFFICIAL TRUMP has been trading within an ascending wedge for the past two and a half weeks, sitting at $7.86. This chart formation is typically a bearish signal, often preceding downward moves.

If the TRUMP price faces any bearish cues, either from investors or the above-mentioned factors, it would break down below the threshold. Weak buying strength could extend the decline, sending it falling by 19% towards $6.24 support.

TRUMP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, if the CMF pattern holds, TRUMP could bounce off the lower trend line and surge past $8.36 to test $9.00. While this move would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook, the broader downtrend is still intact.

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