XRP ($1.81) remains under pressure after extending its downtrend and slipping well below the $2.00 level. The pullback has dampened short-term momentum despite pockets of investor optimism. 

That confidence has yet to translate into stronger network activity, limiting XRP’s ability to stage a meaningful price recovery.

XRP Holders Are Doing Their Part

HODL Waves data shows growing conviction among longer-term XRP holders. Since the start of the month, wallets holding XRP for one to two years increased their supply share by 3%. This cohort now controls roughly 11% of circulating XRP.

The shift reflects mid-term holders maturing into long-term holders. Such behavior often signals confidence during periods of price weakness. These investors appear willing to endure volatility, anticipating a future recovery rather than reacting to short-term price swings.

However, this also indicates that the mid-term holders are underwater. Hence, they are forced to hold XRP tokens.

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XRP HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, macro indicators suggest challenges persist. The network value to transactions ratio shows elevated readings. Rising NVT levels often suggest valuation is outpacing on-chain utility.

The indicator recently reached a three-month high, pointing to potential overheating. XRP’s transaction activity has not kept pace with market expectations. This imbalance weakens recovery attempts, as price advances lack confirmation from network usage and sustained demand.

XRP NVT Ratio. Source: Glassnode

XRP Price May Be Safe From A Crash

XRP trades near $1.86 at the time of writing, remaining well below the $2.00 mark lost last week. The decline followed a failed attempt to break out of a month-long downtrend earlier this month. Momentum remains fragile under current conditions.

The token is holding above the $1.85 support level, which has been tested previously. XRP may consolidate below $1.94 if selling pressure eases. However, worsening sentiment could push the price toward $1.79, extending short-term losses.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

A recovery scenario depends on improving network activity and broader market stability. A break above $1.94 would be the first step toward reclaiming $2.00. Flipping $2.02 into support could drive XRP toward $2.20, invalidating the bearish trend.

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