Bitcoin (BTC ($103,316.00)) climbed toward $110,000 over the weekend but failed to get there, despite a wave of optimistic news ranging from Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to signs of a U.S. government shutdown deal.

According to new research by XWIN Research Japan, a blend of macro pressures, long-term holder selloffs, and weak sentiment has created a resistance zone between $107,000 and $118,000 that bullish headlines alone can’t break.

A Rally Meets Resistance

The recent price move began on November 9, when BTC jumped from under $102,000 to nearly $104,000. This uptick coincided with a promise from President Trump for a $2,000 per-person tariff dividend for many Americans, a proposal that sparked memories of the stimulus checks that preceded the 2020-2021 crypto market expansion.

The optimism continued into November 10, with prices pushing past $107,000 amid hopes for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. However, the rally lost steam soon after, going back down to the $105,000 level, with XWIN Research identifying several immediate headwinds facing the flagship cryptocurrency.

“First, macro pressure: although the Fed cut rates in October, Chair Powell warned another cut in December isn’t guaranteed. That dampened easing expectations and triggered selling across risk assets,” the report noted.

Furthermore, while the Trump administration appears friendly to the industry, state-level regulatory crackdowns are still creating uncertainty and discouraging institutional participation.

However, the biggest barrier XWIN Research identified was on-chain selling from long-term holders (LTHs). The firm pinpointed the $107,000 to $118,000 range as a major resistance zone, noting that LTHs have been increasing their exchange inflows to nearly double the normal levels, creating a friction of supply that absorbs buying pressure.

The LTH-SOPR metric, which tracks profit-taking by these investors, has fallen significantly since July and now sits near 1.6, which XWIN Research interpreted as “reduced conviction among holders, selling into strength but with less profit margin.”

A Market at a Crossroads

While the immediate picture is one of struggle, certain market metrics suggest a potential inflection point is forming. On-chain analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that a key liquidity pattern has reappeared.

According to them, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has returned to its lower historical range, a zone that marked cycle bottoms in mid-2021 and throughout 2024. This indicates a growing pool of stablecoin “dry powder” on the sidelines, historically a precursor to significant market recoveries as that capital rotates into assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, the market is showing classic signs of a liquidity-testing phase, with BTC’s short-term volatility spiking above its 30-day average, a condition that often comes before a major directional move.

This environment has analysts divided, with some, like Doctor Profit, maintaining a cautious stance, warning that a breakdown below the key “Golden Line” support near $99,200 is “only a matter of time” and could erase bullish momentum.

The post Bitcoin’s $107K–$118K Wall: Why Bullish News Isn’t Enough to Break Through appeared first on CryptoPotato.