A strong weekly close above the EMA-50 and a growing decoupling from the global M2 money supply signal renewed bullish momentum, supported by rising institutional demand and a resilient market structure.

Bitcoin Consolidates Between Key Support and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin (BTC ($105,604.00)) continues to trade firmly above the six-figure threshold, maintaining strong momentum amid moderate market volatility. At press time, Bitcoin price today stands near $106,177, up 3.58% in the past 24 hours, according to Brave New Coin data. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s market cap remains robust as traders monitor key technical zones and institutional activity driving the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades between key zones: $100K support and $115K resistance, setting the stage for the next move. Source: @Karman_1s via X

Crypto analyst Kamran Asghar (@Karman_1s) highlighted Bitcoin’s current trading range on X, stating, “The only two zones that matter for $BTC right now are support at $100K and resistance at $115K.” The BTC/USDT ($1.00) daily chart confirms repeated rebounds from the $100K support since July 2025, while the $115K resistance has emerged as a major psychological barrier. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, supported by rising Bitcoin ETF inflows and expectations of sustained institutional demand through 2026.

EMA-50 Breakout Reinforces Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure

On the technical front, Bitcoin achieved a strong weekly close above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA-50)—a development analysts interpret as a continuation of the current bull cycle. Crypto trader Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) noted, “A strong weekly close above EMA-50 has happened. The bull run isn’t over.”

Bitcoin (BTC) posts a strong weekly close above EMA-50, signaling the bull run is far from over. Source: @MaxCrypto via X

The EMA-50 has historically acted as a dynamic support during major uptrends, and Bitcoin maintaining this structure often precedes further upward continuation. The last time BTC held above this moving average for multiple weeks was during the 2020-2021 rally — a period that saw the Bitcoin all-time high (ATH ($0.03)) near $69,000.

If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could be setting up for a renewed push toward $115K, with further upside potential if momentum strengthens into Q1 2026.

Bitcoin Decouples from Global M2 Money Supply

A notable macroeconomic trend has also emerged—Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from the global M2 money supply, a metric often correlated with liquidity growth and asset performance.

Bitcoin (BTC) has decoupled from the M2 money supply and may consolidate between $90K–$120K until Fed liquidity arrives. Source: @TedPillows via X

In a recent post, analyst Ted (@TedPillows) observed, “$BTC price has completely detached from the M2 supply. I think this could continue for some time. Until then, it’ll most likely consolidate between $90K and $120K.”

The shared chart overlays Bitcoin’s price (white line) with the M2 money supply (yellow line) from 2024 to 2026, showing BTC advancing faster than the global liquidity trend. Analysts interpret this divergence as an early sign that Bitcoin may be leading macro liquidity cycles, not merely reacting to them.

This decoupling could also reflect growing institutional participation via vehicles such as the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, which have driven consistent inflows into the crypto market through 2025.

Key Takeaways: Consolidation Before the Next Move

Current data suggests that Bitcoin is stabilizing in a high-value consolidation zone between $100,000 and $115,000. A confirmed breakout above $115K would likely signal the continuation of the bull market and could push BTC price predictions higher heading into 2026.

Conversely, a break below $100K could invite short-term selling pressure, though the strong EMA-50 support and macro liquidity trends still favor the bulls.

The broader sentiment remains one of cautious optimism, with traders monitoring BTC ETF inflows, macro liquidity indicators, and on-chain data to assess whether Bitcoin can sustain its trajectory toward a new Bitcoin price forecast for 2026.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s technical setup, combined with its macro decoupling from M2, points to an increasingly independent asset class—one that is no longer just following liquidity but shaping it.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $106,177, up 3.58% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Price via Brave New Coin

As BTC holds above $105K, the next few weeks may determine whether this consolidation resolves in another leg higher toward $115,000 or transitions into a deeper correction. For now, the Bitcoin bull run remains intact, reinforced by historical moving average strength and a resilient demand base.