Bitcoin prices will not return to their early October highs unless US spending figures, set to be unveiled next week, providing the Federal Reserve with cause to cut rates.

That’s according to Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at the financial brokerage Neomarkets KZ, who told Russia’s RBC that all eyes are now on US October retail sales data, set for release on November 25, with personal consumption expenditures set to follow the next day.

“If the figures fall below expectations, the Fed could cut rates on December 10, giving the market a chance to reverse and rebound,” Kalmanovich said. “If not, pressure on the crypto market will persist. And a fully fledged crypto spring will only become possible in the spring of 2026.”

Crypto winter coming ‘if BTC ($86,206.00) can’t move beyond $87,000’

Bitcoin is trading at around the $86,000 mark at the time of writing, after dropping toward the $80,000 threshold on Friday.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Vasily Girya, the owner and CEO of the Russian crypto mining firm GIS Mining, said that market data suggests that demand for Bitcoin re-emerged at the $80,600 mark.

And this demand has led to a slight recovery in prices, Girya noted. However, he added: “It is premature to consider this movement as the beginning of a sustainable trend reversal.”

“The critical threshold for the short-term outlook was $87,000,” Girya explained. “A price consolidation below this level before [US stock market] trading begins on Monday will signal the onset of a prolonged period of stagnation. And that could be described as the beginning of crypto winter.”

Quick price recovery ‘could save the day’

To avoid a frosty end to the year for Bitcoin, the GIS Mining chief opined, BTC prices will need to return to the $93,000 mark by Monday.

Such a recovery would help restore traders’ confidence, Girya said, adding: “From a technical analytical perspective, such a correction depth would be enough to start a rebound. Traders are now adopting a wait-and-see approach.”

Kalmanovich, meanwhile, explained that wealthier traders were “being forced to rebalance their positions in favor of the dollar.”

“That is being reflected in an outflow from high-risk assets, including crypto funds,” Kalmanovich concluded.

Tim Alper is a news correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email at tdalper@dlnews.com.