XRP ($2.02) remains under heavy bearish pressure, with short sellers firmly in control. Data from Coinglass reveals a long/short ratio of 0.9205, confirming that more traders are betting on a price drop than a rally. This ratio has held below 1 for nearly two weeks—an unmistakable signal of bearish sentiment dominating the market.

Despite a 1.92% dip in open interest, derivatives volume surged by 35% to $3.28 billion, showing that traders remain active but are leaning aggressively on the short side.

Technical Indicators Flash More Downside Risk

XRP trades at $2.14, just above a key support level of $2.05. Analysts expect a sharper short-term decline if the price breaks below this threshold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 47 but continues to fall, implying further downside potential since the asset isn’t yet in oversold territory.

The MACD recently turned negative, reinforcing signs of growing bearish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) also rests at 11, pointing to a weak trend environment with mostly sideways action. Most short- and medium-term moving averages also flash clear sell signals.

Bollinger Band Squeeze Hints at Imminent Volatility

The Bollinger Bands are tightening, often a precursor to a significant price move. Since XRP is testing its support level during this squeeze, the likelihood of a downward break appears stronger than a rebound.

Fundamentals Stay Strong Despite Short-Term Pressure

While the technical setup leans bearish, XRP’s underlying fundamentals remain robust. Ripple recently resolved its high-profile lawsuit with the SEC, lifting a significant regulatory burden. Market buzz around a potential spot XRP ETF is building, with Bloomberg analysts projecting an 85% chance of approval by late 2025—a development that could significantly boost institutional interest.

Though unsuccessful, Ripple’s recent $4–$5 billion bid to acquire stablecoin issuer Circle demonstrates the company’s ambitious expansion plans and confidence in long-term growth.

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Macro Factors and Upcoming Events Could Shift Momentum

External economic forces could influence XRP’s next move. President Trump’s tariff plans, sticky inflation, and broader risk sentiment remain key factors. Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on May 7 and the U.S. CPI report on May 13, which could shake up crypto markets.

If XRP loses the $2.05 support, prices may slide toward the $1.98–$2.00 range, aligning with the 200-day moving average. However, bulls aren’t entirely sidelined. A bounce from this zone and a break above $2.20 could help XRP regain momentum. For now, though, the odds favour the bears.

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