XRP ($2.43)’s spotlight is growing as multiple spot ETF filings — by Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and more— appear on the DTCC platform. Among them, Canary’s filing stands out, with its November 13 window drawing the most focus. This piece looks at how far the XRP price could go if these spot ETFs gain approval.

Or how sentiment might shift if the US government shutdown ends early and brings new SEC comments that delay the first launch.

Whales and Holders Trim Exposure Ahead of Decision

Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have started adjusting positions as the ETF window nears.

On November 9, this cohort controlled 8.38 billion XRP, worth about $20.8 billion at current prices. By November 10, their holdings slipped to 8.37 billion XRP, a drop of roughly 10 million XRP, or $25 million in value.

XRP Whales Have Started Slow Dump: Santiment

The change may look small, but it signals reduced conviction among top holders. Their behavior often leads broader sentiment — and this pullback shows mild hesitation despite the buzz around potential ETF auto-approval.

The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks holdings from long-term investors, adds to that caution. Between November 2–3, HODLers offloaded about 102.5 million XRP. By November 10, the figure widened to 135.8 million XRP, a 32% increase in daily outflows. It means holders are steadily taking profit while the market rallies, not adding to strength.

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Hodlers Cashing Out: Glassnode

So, why the hesitation from whales? The answer lies in timing. If the shutdown continues, Canary’s filing could go auto-effective without SEC review — but if the government reopens early, SEC staff could issue new comments that push approval back.

That regulatory uncertainty might be making even confident traders defensive.

However, Canary isn’t the only issuer removing the delaying amendment. Franklin Templeton also filed an updated S-1 on November 4, stripping out the same clause that lets the SEC control timing. Initially, Franklin’s XRP ETF approval date was on November 14.

That filing triggered the automatic 20-day effectiveness window, meaning Franklin’s spot XRP ETF could also reach approval around November 24 if the Commission doesn’t intervene.

Rex Osprey Precedent and the Leverage Tilt

The last key XRP ETF moment — Rex Osprey’s XRPR launch on September 18 — set a clear pattern. Prices rallied nearly 18% before the event, then corrected sharply after it went live, as traders sold into the hype.

XRP’s Historical Move: TradingView

Now, XRP has rallied about 25% since November 3, echoing that same pre-launch run. Derivative traders appear to be repeating history. Bybit’s liquidation map shows how exposure is stacking: around $117.66 million in long positions versus $72.33 million in shorts.

In simple terms, the market is heavily tilted toward longs. The chart tracks where leveraged traders could be liquidated — and the data shows potential clusters between $2.44 and $2.19. If prices fall into that zone, long positions could unwind fast, triggering a long squeeze and amplifying losses.

Market Is Long-Biased: Coinglass

This is the same setup possibly seen right before the Rex Osprey correction. Heavy long bias, stretched optimism, and whales quietly taking profit. The parallel suggests that if the Canary ETF goes live during a similar sentiment phase, a “sell-the-news” reaction remains possible before any sustained breakout.

XRP Price Action: How Far Can It Go?

XRP trades near $2.48, sitting close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from its recent swing. The structure remains a falling wedge, a typically bullish formation — but momentum will only turn decisively positive if price breaks above $2.88.

• Upside: A confirmed close above $2.88 could open the path to $3.34, matching the resistance from August.
• Neutral zone: Between $2.46–$2.70, price could move sideways as ETF speculation fades into macro uncertainty.
• Downside: Losing $2.31 risks a long squeeze toward $2.06, the wedge’s lower boundary. This line only has two clean touchpoints, making it more vulnerable to large dips.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

The wedge remains inherently bullish, but conviction will only return if XRP reclaims $2.88 with real buying volume. If the shutdown lasts and Canary’s ETF goes through automatically, that breakout could follow quickly.

But if the SEC re-engages early, new comments could delay the launch — likely triggering another short-term sell-the-news drop before any true rally develops.

The post XRP ETF Hype vs. Shutdown Risk: How Far Price Can Run Before “Sell the News” appeared first on BeInCrypto.