XRP ($2.43)’s price recovery has shown signs of weakness in recent days as the altcoin struggles to build sustained momentum. The looming possibility of a Death Cross—a historically bearish technical pattern—has further weighed on market sentiment. 

However, maturing investor behavior may offer hope, potentially setting the stage for XRP to repeat its July 2025 rally.

XRP Holders Could Rescue

The exponential moving averages (EMAs) for XRP are edging dangerously close to forming a Death Cross. This occurs when the 200-day EMA moves above the 50-day EMA, signaling growing bearish momentum in the market. Traders often interpret this as a sign of potential long-term weakness, prompting caution across the community.

Interestingly, the last time XRP’s EMAs neared a Death Cross was in July 2025, just before the token surged by 53%. The current structure bears resemblance to that earlier pattern, suggesting a similar outcome remains possible if market confidence returns soon.

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XRP EMAs. Source: TradingView

XRP’s on-chain data adds an intriguing dimension to this narrative. The HODL Waves chart shows a notable increase in mid-term holders, particularly those holding for 6 to 12 months. This cohort’s dominance has grown from 24.5% to 26.2% in just two days, signaling that short-term traders are transitioning into longer-term investors.

This shift reflects a strengthening conviction in XRP’s future performance. Such behavior often supports price stability by reducing selling pressure and enabling more sustainable growth. If this trend continues, it could counteract the bearish implications of the nearing Death Cross and potentially fuel another upside move similar to the one witnessed last year.

XRP HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

XRP Price Has Two Paths

At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.55, holding slightly above the crucial $2.54 support level. The altcoin needs renewed bullish activity to break through resistance at $2.64, which would confirm upward momentum.

If the Death Cross materializes, XRP could face a short-term correction, possibly dropping toward $2.35 or lower. Such a decline might trigger short-lived selling as traders react to the technical setup.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, if investor maturity continues to grow, XRP could replicate its July 2025 breakout. A successful push above $2.64 could propel the token toward $2.75 and potentially $2.85. This would invalidate the bearish outlook and reignite bullish sentiment

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